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Monday, October 22, 2012

Euro Takes A Step Up, Yen Remains On The Back Foot

The Euro took a step up during the Euro session on Monday after the Spanish prime minister received a big boost for his austerity drive with a regional election victory.

The Euro was in a downward spiral over the last few days last week when Spain made no attempt to seek financial aid at the European Union summit.

Meanwhile the Japanese Yen fell to a 2-month low against the US Dollar on the back of expectations that more stimulus is due from the Bank of Japan.

Today, we are seeing the market acting on the assumption that the BOJ will introduce additional stimulus. This is hurting the Yen and putting upward pressure on the Dollar.

Japan's Finance Ministry has announced that the country's shipments are down by 10.3% in September from a year ago. The trade deficit is 558.6 billion Yen ($7 billion).

The decline was steeper than many economists had predicted and the largest since May 2011, a couple of months after a magnitude-9 quake struck Japan's northeast and in turn then triggered a tsunami and a nuclear disaster.

The BOJ is also expected to lower its economic projections for the 2012 and 2013 fiscal years. It is due to release its first set of forecasts for 2014 at a policy board meeting at month end.
A widening trade deficit will serve to remind the Japanese, of a shrinking current account surplus and what I think will then result, is some short term Yen selling.

When compared with the U.S. the economies in Europe And Japan are looking continuously bleaker, and this should serve the Dollar well in the near to medium term.

The Yen earlier today was down by 0.3% to 79.58 per Dollar and depreciated by 0.6% to 103.87 per Euro. The Euro was up by 0.2% to $1.3054.
On Friday last, European leaders at a European Union summit held in Brussels, committed to agreeing by the end of 2012 on a legislative framework for a single bank supervisory mechanism. Interestingly Moody's Investors Service have said that this would be rating's negative for weaker nations.

The Dollar Index (DXY), which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the U.S. Dollar against currencies of six U.S. trading partners, stood at 79.521 and so has maintained a two-day gain following stock losses globally, which have increased the allure of haven assets.

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