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Monday, January 28, 2013

Renewed EU Economic Confidence Helps Lift The Euro

 The Euro remained steady near last weeks 11-month high against the US Dollar during early trading on Monday as economic confidence in Europe continues to rally.

The Euro's stability has been aided by Euro Zone banks that are repaying more than expected with regards to emergency loans borrowed from the ECB and the perception that the ECB's monetary policy is not as strict compared to the US Fed Reserve.

The Dollar was stronger against most of its 16 major peers ahead of a two day policy meeting of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday.

The Dollar strength is partly due to traders thinking more long term about the U.S. recovery and for now, it seems to me that confidence is rising as regards the U.S. economy. For many, the Fed could be reaching the final point of its quantitative easing programme.
Minutes of the Fed's December meeting have shown that officials started to debate on an end to bond purchases early in the year. So called quantitative easing tends to debase the Dollar.

It's now expected that the Fed could indicate, in its March and June policy meetings, a readiness to begin to scale back, or end, its current round of quantitative easing. Such an occurrence would provide major support to the Dollar.

The Commerce Department is due to publish data today that many economists expect could show that demand for U.S. goods, like machinery and electronics, likely has risen by 2% in December following a more modest 0.8% gain in November.

The Dollar climbed 0.1% to 91.03 Yen while the Euro remained virtually unchanged at $1.3464. The Euro gained 0.2% to 122.56 Yen.

 Meanwhile the Japanese Yen dropped to a 2-1/2 year low against the US Dollar on growing expectations of additional Bank of Japan monetary easing.
The Euro was close to its strongest level in nearly a year, as economists have predicted a rebound in German consumer sentiment.

GfK SE (GFK)'s consumer-sentiment index for Germany, Is expected to be at 5.7 in February. The same index had dropped to 5.6 in January. The company is due to release the figures on Tuesday.

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