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Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Fed's eye on upcoming data

Today, profit-taking knocked the Dollar off a five week high. The Fed's Quantitative Easing (Q.E.) exit strategy is now focused on upcoming data. New talk of negative rates keeps Euro in check.
 
The Dollar was down from a five-week high today as against a basket of major currencies. Traders were locking in gains as they focused on data due out later in the week, that potentially might affect the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy.
 
The Dollar index dropped by 0.3% to 83.015 off from Friday's five week high of 83.438.

As against the Yen, the Dollar slid 0.3% to 101.56 Yen, while the Euro gained 0.35% to $1.3018.

Should upcoming U.S. economic data be strong, then I expect the Dollar to pick up its recent momentum again.

Speculation that a Financial Times report that claims that hedge funds are no longer wary of a collapse in the Euro, could have exaggerated price moves.

Nevertheless, the Dollar has been underpinned by data that shows that U.S. retail sales had unexpectedly risen in April, as households bought building materials, automobiles, and various other goods.

The rise in retail sales and relatively strong job growth recently, have boosted expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could scale back its asset-buying programme later in 2013.

The focus is now on industrial production stats tomorrow and housing starts and consumer prices on Thursday. Friday will see the release of consumer sentiment data.

Market players will then be focusing on comments from Fed speakers later in the week.
Should that occur, this would mean that banks would be charged for parking spare cash that they do not lend. In turn, this would create incentives for investors not to hold Euro cash.
 

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