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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

India has witnessed a major shift from being a farm based economy to service based economy, of which IT sector is a key pillar. However, if a report from JP Morgan is to be believed, the Indian economy is likely to get another jolt by virtue of its high reliance on the blue eyed industry.

As per the report, if US immigration bill gets passed in its current form, it is likely to erode India's GDP. In a bid to protect jobs, the US bill suggests a hike in the visa fees. If the bill gets passed, it will mean a huge addition to costs for Indian IT companies and hence a threat to their business. But this is not all. There is more to this issue than meets the eye. This is because of the multiplier effect that the software sector has on the economy. If the IT industry gets impacted, the other ancillary industries like travel, transportation, hospitability and real estate will also be dragged down. The report estimates the overall loss to the GDP to be around 0.3% - 0.4% in FY15.

While there is nothing final yet, if the worse does happen, the IT industry is likely to react by changing the hiring policies and the way the business is done. While such changes have already started taking place, all adaptations take time. In the meantime, the Indian economy does have serious reasons to worry.

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