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Monday, March 31, 2014

Election hopes may have taken the sentiments in Indian stock markets to new highs. But that does not make the economy any less vulnerable to global uncertainties. Key amongst them is the Fed's decision to raise interest rates. While it may seem some time away, any tightening in global liquidity is certain to hurt Indian stock markets. Moreover, the currency stability that India has witnessed over the past month or so may not be here to stay. The sharp decline in the current account deficit is the most important reason why the rupee stabilized. As per Business Standard, a lot of funds have come into India in recent weeks in the hope of a business friendly government. This money will flow out just as quickly if that hope does not materialize. To top that a tighter global liquidity situation could only exacerbate India's currency volatility and deficit woes. So while the going is good, it would only be wise on the RBI's part to shore up the forex reserves. The reserve kitty could act as insurance for difficult times ahead.

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